THE CORONA VIRUS.
The state of events as at 16th April 2020, as I see it from my perch in Amanzimtoti, South Africa.
Covid-19 has struck the world and will, I feel, change life as we knew it, dramatically, and plenty of drama there will be too.
South Africa grabbed the nettle and shut the country down before most of us had even heard of this virus, never mind pandemic. The problem lay in Wuhan, China as far as we were concerned. We only had ten tourists that had returned from a holiday in Italy, and one of them felt mildly ill. How could that start a pandemic? Shortly after their return, on Friday, March 27th, SA went into lockdown. The promise was 21 days, until April 16th. That would be today. This date was then extended to April the 30th.
On Monday, 6th April SA had recorded roughly 1650 cases with 11 deaths. Today, 16th April we have 2506 with 48 deaths and only 903 recoveries. This looks like a major increase, almost 100 per day, but we are apparently doing better than expected. Those in the know say the lockdown is flattening the infection curve as we hoped it would. 95060 tests have been conducted, mostly in the high-density township areas where it is difficult for people to maintain social distancing, and testing continues. The government is petrified that if this virus spreads unchecked in a high-density population, the death toll will skyrocket out of control. They want to stop this at all costs, so the lockdown stays in force.
The lockdown entails the shutting of all schools and institutes of learning. All non-essential businesses are shut. This includes most clothing, household goods, furniture and electronic shops, hardware shops, pawnshops, motor garages, factories of all kinds, all restaurants and fast food outlets. Most municipal services, libraries, museums, fun parks etc are also closed. The sale of cigarettes and alcohol has been totally banned. All gatherings of more than 10 people have been totally banned. The only shops that are deemed essential are food supermarkets, doctors and filling stations it seems. Many factories that supply essential services, and municipal services, like taking the trash away are still operating.
But what are the consequences of the lockdown. SA, before the virus struck had an unemployment rate of almost 30%. Much higher amongst the 18 to 35 year age group. Most of these people and beggars on the streets earned a living amongst themselves or in the informal sector, scavenging food, selling scrap metal, especially stolen copper cables, selling fruit and veg on the streets. No one knew how, but they all survived and did not starve. Now with lockdown, their informal sources of income have dried up. The tramps have been taken off the streets, put into nice living quarters, but their sources of income have dried up. They can eat the food that they are given, but there is no money for anything else. Drugs, drink, cigarettes etc. They are not happy!
The happy consequence of the lockdown is that gang violence on the Cape Flats has virtually come to a dead stop. The road death toll over the Easter weekend, 28 as opposed to over 160 last year, was at historic lows. Murder and robbery numbers are also at historic lows. Some say this is thanks to the total ban on alcohol and cigarette sales. But domestic violence and abuse are said to be higher than average. So yes, a lot of good seems to be flowing from the lockdown, although starvation is also staring a lot of people in the face.
The government will be forced to lift restrictions soon or the economy will collapse completely. Students must return to learning, people must be allowed to earn their keep. The government cannot provide for the needs of everyone. This more so for the SA government that was virtually bankrupt before the virus struck.
What the future holds once the lockdown is lifted we do not know. Some speculate that infections will again increase exponentially. Some hope infections will remain under control. One way or the other we will all have to keep ourselves safe until a vaccine is found and administered, or until summer at least. Until then we will need to wear masks, gloves and wash our hands frequently.
There is of course still a lot more to say on this topic, but I will sign off now. The picture will become clearer as the situation unfolds.